The climate risks we face

The first ever European climate risk assessment carried out by the European Environment Agency (EEA) has concluded that Europe is unprepared for what lies in store.

The year 2023 was the warmest year ever. The global average temperature during 2023 has surpassed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius set in the Paris agreement at the 2015 Climate Summit.

Europe is the fastest warming continent. The situation in Southern Europe is even worse. It will face considerably reduced rainfall and more severe droughts.

At this point, none of this is however news. It is already the present. The future may, however, be even worse than that.

In a 425-page report we are told that climate change is a multiplier of risks: existing risks will be aggravated. Climate risks are growing much faster than our preparedness. We are being extremely slow in developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies.

36 major climate risks for Europe have been identified. They are grouped in five clusters, namely, ecosystems, food, health, infrastructure, and the economy/finance.  

The key findings of this first European climate risk assessment, which I quote verbatim from the EEA report, are:

“Ecosystems: climate change is one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation in Europe. Among climate risks related to ecosystems, risks to coastal and marine ecosystems have the highest severity in the current period as well as the greatest urgency to act.

Food: Europe faces multiple challenges to food production and food security, including reducing its environmental impact. Crop production is already facing substantial climate risks in Europe as a whole, and critical risk levels in Southern Europe.

Health: climate change poses major risks to human health systems. Risks related to heat are already at critical levels in southern Europe.

Infrastructure: extreme weather events are posing increasing risks to the built environment and infrastructure in Europe, and the services they provide. Such events can disrupt essential services, including energy supply, water supply and transport networks.

Economy and finance: the European financial system faces critical risks from the impacts of climate change, both within Europe and abroad. Serious sector- and region-specific risks to Europe could catalyse a systemic financial shock.” (page 264: para 18.6 of the report)

This is a wakeup call of the highest order. The European continent is unprepared for the growing extremes of climate. Yet senior politicians at an EU level are more interested in sabotaging specific initiatives which seek to bridge the gap in climate change preparedness. The recent debate (and voting patterns) on the regulatory framework for the restoration of nature is a case in point.

The recent Dutch farmers’ revolt which has shaken the Netherlands’ body politic has its origin in the difficulties encountered in implementing the Nitrates Directive. It has however spread to other regions, motivated by the industrial agricultural lobby’s determination to sabotage the EU Green Deal.

In Germany the centre-right CDU-CSU have just launched their joint EU Parliament electoral manifesto with a pledge to reverse the controversial phase-out of the internal combustion engine. A definite commitment to water-down the EU Green Deal. The CDU-CSU leading candidate is the same person piloting the EU Green Deal, Ursula von der Leyen.

With these attitudes it is inevitable that our preparedness for the climate risks we face will get even worse. This is the future we face. It keeps getting worse until those that matter come to their senses.

published in The Malta Independent on Sunday : 17 March 2024

It-turiżmu għarkuptejh

It-turiżmu hu ewlieni fost l-oqsma tas-setturi ekonomiċi milquta mill-pandemija Covid-19. Dan japplika iktar għat-turiżmu tal-massa li għadu s’issa settur importanti li fuqu hi dipendenti l-industrija turistika Maltija. Julia Farrugia-Portelli, Ministru għat-Turiżmu, (flimkien mal- Ministri għat-Turiżmu tal-Italja, Ċipru, Spanja, Franza, l-Portugall, il-Greċja, ir-Rumanija u l-Bulgarija) f’laqgħa virtwali iktar kmieni din il-ġimgħa fittxet kunsens biex jinħolqu kurituri siguri għat-turiżmu fit-triq lura lejn in-normalità u f’żona ħielsa mill-Covid-19.

Sfortunatament, tal-inqas fl-immedjat, irridu ngħixu mal-virus Covid-19 u l-limitazzjonijiet li ħoloq fuq il-ħajja normali tagħna. It-triq lura lejn in-normalità hi waħda twila. Ir-restrizzjonijiet straordinarji fuq ħajjitna li huma fis-seħħ presentment ma jistgħux jibqgħu għaddejjin b’mod indefinit u dan minkejja li illum huma meħtieġa.

Ir-restrizzjonijiet kważi totali imposti fil-gżejjer Maltin tul il-ġimgħat li għaddew kienu effettivi biex ikunu indirizzati il-biżgħat dwar is-saħħa. Bħala riżultat ta’ dawn ir-restrizzjonijiet, f’Malta, l-mixja tal-virus kienet imrażżna, kif jixhdu l-aħbarijiet ta’ kuljum imxandra mis-Supretendent dwar is-Saħħa Pubblika.

It-turiżmu qiegħed għarkuptejh. Prattikament waqaf, kullimkien madwar id-dinja, anke jekk temporanjament.

Fl-Unjoni Ewropea mit-turiżmu jiddependu qrib is-27 miljun impieg li jiġġeneraw madwar għaxra fil-mija tal-prodott gross nazzjonali. F’Malta u fil-pajjiżi ġirien fin-nofsinnhar tal-Ewropa, aħna dipendenti iktar mit-turiżmu mill-medja Ewopeja. Ix-xibka tad-dipendenza tal-ekonomija tagħna fuq it-turiżmu hi ferm ikbar minn hekk. It-tbatija kkawżat illum hi għaldaqstant ikbar u r-ritorn għal xi forma ta’ normalità inevitabilment tieħu iktar fit-tul.

Meta ser nirritornaw lura għan-normal? Ċertament li mhux fl-immedjat. Hu ferm dubjuż jekk din ix-xewqa għar-ritorn lejn in-normal magħruf tistax tintlaħaq, anke jekk inħarsu ftit fit-tul. Li hu żgur hu li ma hu ser jinbidel xejn mil-lum għal għada.

Iktar kmieni din il-ġimgħa l-Ministri tat-Turiżmu tal-Unjoni Ewropea iddiskutew inizjattivi biex jinkuraġixxu t-turiżmu intern fl-unjoni nnifisha u dan permezz tal-ħolqien ta’ speċi ta’ passaporti tas-saħħa bejn żoni ħielsa mill-Covid-19. Sakemm tibqa’ fis-seħħ il-miżura dwar iż-żamma ta’ distanza soċjali, l-proposta mhiex waħda realistika, ta’ l-inqas għall-futur immedjat u probabbilment għal bosta xhur wara.

Sfortunatament l-ivvjaġġar b’mod ġenerali, u b’mod partikolari t-turiżmu, għandu l-potenzjal li jservi għat-tixrid tal-pandemija bl-istess mod kif fil-passat kien il-kummerċ li serva biex xtered mard ieħor f’kull rokna tad-dinja. Fid-dawl ta’ dan, hu probabbli li t-turiżmu tkun fost l-aħħar mill-attivitajiet ekonomiċi li jibdew t-triq lura għan-normal, u dan wara li l-Covid-19 tkun taħt kontroll effettiv fl-Ewropa b’mod ġenerali.

Kulħadd jifhem u japprezza l-ħeġġa tal-Ministeru tat-Turiżmu biex jonqsu r-restrizzjonijiet fuq l-ivvjaġġar u allura fuq dawk is-setturi li minnhom hi dipendenti l-industrija tat-turiżmu. Sfortunatament, iżda, fil-futur immedjat dan mhux realistiku li jintlaħaq. Hemm dubji kbar anke dwar x’jista’ jseħħ fuq tul ta’ żmien.

L-ekonomija tal-parti l-kbira tan-nofsinnhar tal-Ewropa, u in partikolari dik tal-pajjiżi Mediterranji, hi dipendenti fuq it-turiżmu u dan billi tipprovdi vaganzi bi prezzijiet raġjonevoli tul is-sena kollha għal dawk ġejjin mit-tramuntana u ċ-ċentru tal-Ewropa f’kuntest ta’ suq Ewropew wieħed. Il-miġja tal-vjaġġi b’irħis mifruxa mal-Ewropa kollha komplew kabbru l-firxa ta’ din ix-xibka ta’ dipendenza.

F’dan il-kuntest huwa ċar li ftit jista’ jsir ippjanar bil-quddiem. Hemm ħaġa waħda li hi ċara: il-futur huwa nċert u t-turiżmu għad ma nafux x’sura ser jieħu fix-xhur u fis-snin li ġejjin. It-tbatija mhux ser tintemm hekk kif nieqfu nistennew. Għax it-turiżmu qiegħed għarkuptejh.

Ippubblikat fuq Illum: il-Ħadd 3 ta’ Mejju 2020

Tourism is on its knees

Tourism has been among the hardest hit sectors of the economy as a result of the Covid-19 crisis. This applies more so to mass tourism which still constitutes an important sector on which Malta’s tourism industry is dependent. Julia Farrugia-Portelli, Minister for Tourism, (together with Tourism Ministers from Italy, Cyprus, Spain, France, Portugal, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria) in an online meeting earlier this week advocated the creation of safe corridors, desperately seeking to create a return to normal in a Covid-19 free zone.

Unfortunately, at least in the short term, we have to live with a virus that has overturned ordinary life. The path back to normalcy will take a very long time even though it is clear that the extraordinary restrictions currently enforced cannot go on indefinitely, notwithstanding that today they are clearly a necessity.

The partial lockdown in operation in the Maltese islands for the past weeks has been effective in addressing public health concerns. As a result, in Malta, the spread of the virus has been contained and adequately managed as is evidenced by the daily briefings of the Superintendent of Public Health.

Tourism is however on its knees. It has been practically wiped out, temporarily, everywhere across the globe.

Within the European Union tourism accounts for close to 27 million jobs and around 10 per cent of GDP. In Malta, as well as in other neighbouring Southern European countries, tourism makes a larger contribution to the GDP. The web of dependence of the economy on tourism is larger. The pain is consequently larger and the expected time for recovery will be much longer.

Will we return to normal? Certainly not in the short term. It is even doubtful whether such a return to the “known normal” is achievable in the long term. Definitely any recovery will not occur overnight.

Earlier this week EU Tourism Ministers discussed whether initiatives should be taken to encourage internal tourism within the EU itself through some sort of health passports between areas within the EU which are Covid-19 free. As long as keeping a social distance rule remains in force this is not a realistic option, at least for the foreseeable future, certainly not for a number of months.

Unfortunately, travel in general and tourism in particular has the potential of being the perfect vehicle for the spreading of the pandemic just as trade, in the past, served to spread other pandemics across the globe. Keeping this in mind, most probably tourism would be the last economic activity to be reactivated once Covid-19 is sufficiently under control, at least on the European mainland.

It is understandable that the Ministry for Tourism seeks an early scaling down of the restrictions on travel and consequently on the sectors servicing the tourism industry. It has however to be underlined that this is not realistic to achieve in the short term. It is also dubious as to what lies in store in the long term.

The economy of the greater extent of Southern Europe, and in particular that of Mediterranean countries, is reliant on tourism primarily through providing reasonably priced holidays, not just during the summer months, for citizens of Northern and Central Europe within an EU single market. Low-cost flights throughout the European area further adds to this web of dependence.

Even though in this context it is difficult to plan ahead, one thing is certain: the future is as yet undefined and tourism will never be the same. Recovery will be as painful as the waiting time. Tourism is definitely on its knees.

Published in The Malta Independent on Sunday : 3 May 2020

Is-siġar taż-żebbuġ taħt theddida

Studju ippubblikat dan l-aħħar jitkellem dwar marda li tattakka s-siġar taż-żebbuġ (Xylella fastidiosa). Ftit li xejn, safejn naf jien, smajna lill-awtoritajiet ta’ l-agrikultura f’Malta jitkellmu dwarha, inkluż dwar x’passi qed jieħdu jew fi ħsiebhom jieħdu.

L-istudju ġie rilaxxjat nhar it-Tnejn 13 t’April 2020 u jindika li l-marda jista’ jkollha impatt serju ħafna fuq in-nofsinnhar kollu tal-Ewropa fejn is-siġar taż-żebbuġ huma prevalenti. Il-marda mhix ġdida. Ilha magħna is-snin, sa mill-2013, u diġa għamlet ħafna ħsara.

Hu stmat li l-impatt fuq Spanja jista’ jlaħħaq mas-€16.9 biljun, fuq l-Italja €5.2 biljun u fuq il-Greċja €2 biljun. L-istudju sar minn xjenzjati mill-Università Olandiża ta’ Wageningen.

Il-ħsara ma issirx f’daqqa iżda fuq numru ta’ snin skond kemm u kif tinfirex il-marda. Huwa għalhekk importanti li jittieħdu passi immedjati jekk irridu nħarsu l-investiment f’dan il-qasam agrikolu li anke f’Malta jitla’ għal ammont sostanzjali.

L-interess fis-siġar taż-żebbuġ u fil-produzzjoni ta’ żejt taż-żebbuġa żdied ħafna tul is-snin. F’Malta, bħall-bqija taż-żewġ naħat tal-kosta tal-Mediterran s’issa hawn klima li tiffaċilta dan l-interess. Mhux biss illum. Hi ħidma li kienet teżisti minn snin ilu, ukoll, kif jixhdu id-diversi fdalijiet arkejoloġiċi li nstabu tul is-snin.

X’inhu jagħmel il-Gvern? B’mod partikolari x’inhu jsir fejn tidħol l-importazzjoni ta’ siġar taż-żebbuġ mill-pajjiżi milquta mill-marda?

Ġejt infurmat li din il-marda (xylella fastidiosa) ma tattakkax biss lis-siġar taż-żebbuġ imma tattakka madwar 123 speċi ta’ siġar oħra inkluż frott irqieq, ċitru u dwieli fost oħrajn.

L-impatt fuqna jekk nimpurtaw din il-marda għaldaqstant ikun wieħed enormi.

Is-segwenti hu estratt mill-istudju:

Abstract: Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants.

Is-solidarjetà mhiex qegħda fuq kwarantina

Il-kriżi tal-Covid19 tatna affarijiet ġodda biex ninkwetaw dwarhom. Il-problemi l-qodma għadhom magħna, imma issa tilfu l-importanza u l-urġenza tagħhom fid-dawl tal-kriżi kurrenti. Saħħitna, kemm individwalment kif ukoll b’mod kollettiv hi taħt theddida. L-ekonomija wieqfa u xi setturi ambjentali bdew jirpiljaw bil-mod.

Waqt li setturi differenti tal-ħidma tal-pajjiż qed jieqfu jew jiġu mwaqqfa bħala miżura ta’ prewkazzjioni, hu tajjeb li nassiguraw li s-solidarjetà ma tiġix imqegħda fi kwarantina.

Is-solidarjetà bejnietna hi essenzjali mhux biss biex inwieżnu lil xulxin illum, waqt il-kriżi, imma ukoll fi trieqitna biex il-pajjiż jirkupra u jerġa’ jibda jaħdem mill-ġdid. Irridu nifhmu li kulħadd hu importanti: dan jgħodd għal kull persuna mingħajr l-ebda eċċezzjoni. Ħadd ma għandu jkun injorat inkella jitħalla jaqa’ lura. Meta l-kriżi toqrob lejn tmiemha b’dan il-mod inkunu iktar b’saħħitna u fil-mixja tagħna nkunu għarafna napprezzaw aktar u aħjar lil xuxlin.

L-awtorijiajiet tas-saħħa f’Malta aġixxew b’kawtela raġjonevoli meta bdew jippjanaw minn kmieni għall-imxija tal-Covid19. It-tnaqqis gradwali ta’ attività mhux essenzjali, kienet, b’mod ġenerali, ippjanata tajjeb, b’eċċezzjoni waħda. Il-ftuħ tal-istaġun tal-kaċċa fir-rebbiegħa ukoll hu waħda mill-attivitajiet mhux essenzjali li ma kienx hemm ħtieġa li jiftaħ. Il-kumitat Ornis kien irresponsabbli li ta parir biex l-istaġun jinfetaħ. Il-Gvern qatt ma messu aċċetta li dan jiftaħ.

Il-komunità tal-kaċċa tilfet opportunità li tippreżenta ruħha f’dawl differenti. Sfortunatament, għal darba oħra ikkonfermat li mhiex kapaċi taġixxi b’mod responsabbli.

Inkunu b’saħħitna jekk ilkoll kemm aħna naġixxu b’mod responsabbli. Għandna nsegwu l-parir li ngħatajna biex preferibilment nibqgħu ġewwa. Mhux il-waqt la għal picnic, la għall-camping u wisq inqas għal mixjiet fil-kampanja inkella għall-kaċċa.

Hu ukoll opportun li nirrealizzaw li r-razziżmu jagħmel ħsara iktar mill-Covid19.

Matul il-ġimgħa ċ-Ċentru Miftuħ ta’ Ħal-Far tqiegħed taħt kwarantina u dan wara li madwar tmien residenti tiegħu kienu identifikati bħala posittivi għall-Covid19. Kienet opportunità oħra li r-razzisti fostna ippruvaw jisfruttaw biex ikesksu. Ftit huma konxji li l-komunità ta’ Ħal-Far hi fost dawk li huma mill-iktar vulnerabbli b’mod partikolari minħabba l-ispazju ffullat li tqegħdu fih. Kif spjegajt fil-blog tiegħi nhar it-Tlieta, tkun deċiżjoni għaqlija kieku din il-komunità ta’ Ħal-Far, waqt li għaddejja l-kriżi kurrenti, tkun tista’ tagħmel użu mill-lukandi li presentement huma vojta u li m’humiex jintużaw. Dan mhux biss ikun fl-interess tagħhom u ta’ saħħithom. Huwa ukoll fl-interess tagħna lkoll li jittieħdu l-passi kollha neċessarji biex tkun ikkontrollata iktar l-imxija tal-Covid19. Il-Gvern għandu l-awtorità kollha biex jieħu deċiżjoni ta’ din ix-xorta għax il-liġi tipprovdi għaliha. Iktar ma issir malajr iktar aħjar għax b’hekk ikun indirizzat wieħed mir-riskji l-kbar li jista’ jwassal għat-tixrid aċċellerat tal-Covid19.

Fuq livell ta’ Unjoni Ewropea id-dibattitu dwar il-ħidma li trid issir wara li tintemm il-kriżi Covid19 għaddej.

Hu fatt li b’mod ġenerali l-Unjoni Ewropeja ma kienitx imħejjija għall-wasla taI-Covid19 u l-emerġenza li rriżultat. Bħala riżultat ta’ dan, fl-ewwel ġimgħat la l-Italja u l-anqas Spanja ma sabu l-appoġġ li tant kienu jeħtieġu. Dan wassal biex is-servizzi tas-saħħa f’dawn il-pajjiżi ma setgħux ilaħħqu biex jindirizzaw l-impatti tal-mixja tal-virus u kienu f’xifer il-kollass.

It-telf ta’ kull ħajja hi dejjem okkazjoni ta’ dieqa kbira. Imma meta din tkun frott ta’ nuqqas ta’ preparazzjoni adegwata tkun ukoll riżultat ta’ inkompetenza.

Id-dibattitu illum huwa ukoll dwar liema hi l-aħjar triq il-quddiem. Pajjiżi min-nofsinnhar tal-Ewropa, ewlenin fosthom l-Italja u Spanja, b’appoġġ tal-Ħodor u s-soċjal demokratiċi fil-grupp S & D, qed jargumentaw favur il-ħruġ ta’ coronabonds mill-Unjoni Ewropeja. Bonds li hu propost li jimmaturaw fit-tul u dan kemm biex jitnaqqsu l-ispejjes biex dawn ikunu amministrati kif ukoll biex ikun assigurat li l-piż jintrefa minn kulħadd.

Qed nikteb l-Erbgħa fil-ghaxija meta jidher li għad ma hemm l-ebda konklużjoni dwar dan kollu. Hi triq, iżda, li għandha twassal għal solidarjetà u mhux għal karità.

Is-solidarjetà mhiex taħt kwarantina. Hi t-triq il-quddiem kemm f’Malta kif ukoll fl-Ewropa. Wara kollox hi parti integrali mid-DNA tagħna.

 

Ippubblikat fuq Illum : Il-Ħadd 12 t’April 2020

Solidarity is not on quarantine

The COVID-19 outbreak has changed what we are worrying about. Old problems are still around but their relative importance has been overshadowed by the current crisis. Our health, both individual and collective, is endangered. The economy is at a standstill and specific sectors of the environment are slowly recovering.

As more sections of society grind to a halt on a voluntary or compulsory lockdown, as a precautionary measure, it is important to ensure that solidarity is not placed on quarantine.

Solidarity is essential to support each other, primarily the most vulnerable amongst us. It is also essential both for our survival and for the eventual recovery of the country. In the process we must emphasise that everyone is important and no one is to be left behind or on his/her own. We must ensure that when this crisis is over, we come out of it stronger and wiser.

The health authorities in Malta acted with reasonable caution when they acted early to plan for the COVID-19 outbreak. The gradual reduction of non-essential activity was also generally planned responsibly, with one exception. The opening of the spring hunting season planned for this weekend is uncalled for. The Ornis Committee was irresponsible when it recommended its opening and government should not have accepted its advice.

The hunting community missed an opportunity which could have depicted them in a different light. They confirmed once more that in the hunting leadership’s dictionary the term “responsibility” has no significance.

We will be stronger if all of us act responsibly. We are being advised to preferably remain indoors. It is not the time for picnics, camping, walks in the countryside or hunting.

It is also time to realise that racism is more damaging than COVID-19.

During the week the open centre at Ħal-Far was placed on quarantine after some eight of its residents tested positive for COVID-19. It was a ranting opportunity for the racists among us. Little do they realise that the Ħal-Far community is among the most vulnerable due to the over-crowded space they have been provided with. As I explained on my blog last Tuesday, it would be reasonable at this point to shift the Ħal-Far community to vacant hotels for the duration of the crisis. It is not only in the interest of the Ħal-Far community but also in our own interest so as to ensure that the spread of COVID-19 is further contained. Government has the full authority to proceed in this direction through existing legislation. The sooner this is done the better as this would be a very effective measure to contain a high risk area which could get out of hand and accelerate the spread of COVID-19.

On a European Union level the debate on the post-COVID-19 era is in full swing.
The COVID-19 outbreak found the EU inadequately prepared for the resulting emergency. As a result, in the initial weeks, Italy and Spain were not sufficiently supported and consequently their health services were overwhelmed and could not cope with the spread of the virus.

Loss of life is always regrettable. However, when this results from a lack of adequate preparation it is more a case of incompetence.

The current debate is on the best way forward. Southern European countries, primarily Italy and Spain, buttressed by the European Greens and the S & D, are arguing in favour of so-called coronabonds. The issuance would take the form of bonds with a long maturity, thereby alleviating debt servicing costs and burden-sharing among EU Member States. I am writing on Wednesday, when conclusions seem to be still far away. This should however follow a path of solidarity not one of charity.

Solidarity is not on quarantine. Solidarity is the way forward both on a national level as well as on an EU level. It is, after all, an essential element of our DNA.

 

published on The Malta Independent on Sunday : 12 April 2020