The climate risks we face

The first ever European climate risk assessment carried out by the European Environment Agency (EEA) has concluded that Europe is unprepared for what lies in store.

The year 2023 was the warmest year ever. The global average temperature during 2023 has surpassed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius set in the Paris agreement at the 2015 Climate Summit.

Europe is the fastest warming continent. The situation in Southern Europe is even worse. It will face considerably reduced rainfall and more severe droughts.

At this point, none of this is however news. It is already the present. The future may, however, be even worse than that.

In a 425-page report we are told that climate change is a multiplier of risks: existing risks will be aggravated. Climate risks are growing much faster than our preparedness. We are being extremely slow in developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies.

36 major climate risks for Europe have been identified. They are grouped in five clusters, namely, ecosystems, food, health, infrastructure, and the economy/finance.  

The key findings of this first European climate risk assessment, which I quote verbatim from the EEA report, are:

“Ecosystems: climate change is one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation in Europe. Among climate risks related to ecosystems, risks to coastal and marine ecosystems have the highest severity in the current period as well as the greatest urgency to act.

Food: Europe faces multiple challenges to food production and food security, including reducing its environmental impact. Crop production is already facing substantial climate risks in Europe as a whole, and critical risk levels in Southern Europe.

Health: climate change poses major risks to human health systems. Risks related to heat are already at critical levels in southern Europe.

Infrastructure: extreme weather events are posing increasing risks to the built environment and infrastructure in Europe, and the services they provide. Such events can disrupt essential services, including energy supply, water supply and transport networks.

Economy and finance: the European financial system faces critical risks from the impacts of climate change, both within Europe and abroad. Serious sector- and region-specific risks to Europe could catalyse a systemic financial shock.” (page 264: para 18.6 of the report)

This is a wakeup call of the highest order. The European continent is unprepared for the growing extremes of climate. Yet senior politicians at an EU level are more interested in sabotaging specific initiatives which seek to bridge the gap in climate change preparedness. The recent debate (and voting patterns) on the regulatory framework for the restoration of nature is a case in point.

The recent Dutch farmers’ revolt which has shaken the Netherlands’ body politic has its origin in the difficulties encountered in implementing the Nitrates Directive. It has however spread to other regions, motivated by the industrial agricultural lobby’s determination to sabotage the EU Green Deal.

In Germany the centre-right CDU-CSU have just launched their joint EU Parliament electoral manifesto with a pledge to reverse the controversial phase-out of the internal combustion engine. A definite commitment to water-down the EU Green Deal. The CDU-CSU leading candidate is the same person piloting the EU Green Deal, Ursula von der Leyen.

With these attitudes it is inevitable that our preparedness for the climate risks we face will get even worse. This is the future we face. It keeps getting worse until those that matter come to their senses.

published in The Malta Independent on Sunday : 17 March 2024

In-natura dejjem tiddeċiedi

Bħala riżultat tal-coronavirus il-pajjiż kważi wieqaf. Ġie kkonfermat għal darba oħra li m’aħniex iżolati min-natura u l-forzi naturali ta’ madwarna. Ma għandna l-ebda immunità la mill-virus u l-anqas mill-forzi tan-natura.

Illum hawn il-pandemija tal-coronavirus li għaddejja tkaxkar minn quddiema lil min ma jkunx moħħu hemm. Għada, mhux ‘il-bogħod, irridu niffaċċjaw il-qilla tat-tibdil fil-klima.

In-natura ma tiddiskriminax u tibqa’ għaddejja minn fuq kulħadd.

Il-pandemija tal-coronavirus hu maħsub li oriġinat f’Wuhan iċ-Ċina, fis-suq tal-annimali maqbuda mis-selvaġġ, permezz tal-bejgħ ta’ laħam tagħhom, ewlieni fosthom laħam tal-friefet il-lejl.

Din ġrat drabi oħra. Il-marda respiratorja magħrufa bħala SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), li tfaċċat madwar għoxrin sena ilu imma li kellha firxa limitata, ukoll oriġinat minn virus ġej mill-istess familja tal-coronavirus. Ġie identifikat li anke is-SARS toriġina minn annimali fis-selvaġġ. Jidher li fiż-żewġ każi l-virus joriġina prinċipalment mill-friefet il-lejl.

Fi żmien ieħor, kien skopert li l-HIV (Human Immune-deficiency Virus) li jattakka u jeqred id-difiża interna ta’ ġisimna toriġina minn l-ikel ta’ laħam tax-xadini infettat. Anke l-virus Ebola, kawża ta’ infezzjonijiet fatali, hi trasmessa minn annimali infettati bħall-friefet il-lejl u x-xadini, ġeneralment permezz tal-ikel ta’ laħam infettat.
In-natura għandha l-ħabta li meta jidhrilha tiddeċiedi. Il-virus jibqa’ għaddej b’mod naturali u sakemm jitwaqqaf b’imġiebitna xejn ma jżommu.

It-tbagħbis tan-natura dejjem iwassal għal konsegwenzi serji. Hemm prezz x’jitħallas għal imġiebitna. Kull meta ninjoraw dan il-fatt bażiku, jiddispjaċina.

Nimmaġina li ħadd minna ma kiel laħam infettat ġej mill-friefet il-lejl inkella mix-xadini. Aħna iżda nbagħbsu man-natura mod ieħor li fuq tul ta’ żmien jagħmel ħsara daqs il-virus li jaqbeż mill-farfett il-lejl għal ġol-bniedem.

Il-kwalità tal-arja tagħna ħafna drabi hi deskritta mill-agenzija Ewropea tal-Ambjent bħala waħda fqira.

Imma wara li daħlu fis-seħħ il-miżuri biex nikkumbattu l-imxija tal-coronavirus, fl-Imsida, fejn l-Awtorità tal-Ambjent għandha stazzjon li jkejjel il-kwalità tal-arja, ġie osservat tnaqqis fit-tniġġiż tal-arja. L-informazzjoni li nġabret mill-kampjuni tal-kwalità tal-arja tindika tnaqqis sostanzjali fit-tniġġiż li hu assoċjat mal-użu tal-karozzi. Dan seħħ tul dawn l-aħħar ġimgħat bħala riżultat tal-fatt li iktar nies qed jaħdmu mid-dar kif ukoll minħabba li l-istituzzjonijiet edukattivi għalqu l-bibien tagħhom. L-użu tal-karozzi naqas sostanzjalment u dan wassal għal tnaqqis fit-tniġġiż li joriġina mit-traffiku.

Kellha tkun il-coronavirus li twassal għall-implimentazzjoni tal-istrateġija nazzjonali tat-trasport li identifikat id-dipendenza fuq il-karozzi bħala l-problema ewlenija li dawk li jfasslu l-miżuri dwar it-trasport kontinwament jinjoraw. Nofs il-vjaġġi bil-karozzi privati f’Malta idumu inqas minn 15-il minuta. Dan ifisser li l-mobilità meħtieġa hi prinċipalment ta’ natura lokali jew reġjonali u għal distanzi qosra. Xi ħtieġa hemm ta’ karozzi privati għal dan? F’pajjiż fejn kważi kullimkien huwa tefa’ ta’ ġebla ‘l-bogħod għandna iktar minn biżżejjed mezzi alternattivi ta’ transport.

L-impatt tal-Covid-19 fuq il-ġenerazzjoni tat-traffiku u allura fuq il-kwalità tal-arja jindika li m’għandniex ħtieġa li nibqgħu għaddejjin bil-ħela ta’ fondi pubbliċi fuq proġetti massivi mhux meħtieġa in konnessjoni mal-infrastruttura tat-toroq. Ilkoll jeħtieġ li nifhmu li hu possibli illi nnaqqsu sostanzjalment l-impatti fuq il-kwalità tal-arja jekk nindirizzaw bis-serjetà d-dipendenza tagħna lkoll fuq il-karozzi privati. Jagħmlu tajjeb dawk li huma nkarigati mill-ippjanar tat-trasport jekk jagħtu każ tal-impatti tal-coronavirus fuq it-traffiku: tibdil fl-imġieba tagħna lkoll u tnaqqis tat-traffiku ġġenerat.

L-impatt tat-traffiku fuq il-kwalità tal-arja hu kontribut sinifikanti ta’ Malta għat-tibdil fi-klima. It-tibdil fil-klima hi r-reazzjoni tan-natura għat-tniġġis tal-arja ikkawżat fid-dinja, prinċipalment mill-bniedem. Din diġa qed timmanifesta ruħha permezz ta’ tibdil, kultant sostanzjali, fit-temperaturi, perjodi twal ta’ nixfa u varjazzjonijiet dwar meta u kemm tagħmel xita. Kultant l-istaġuni donnu jaslu barra minn żmienhom.

L-impatti tal-coronavirus qed jagħtu ftit nifs lin-natura u dan mhux biss f’Malta! Hemm bosta lezzjonijiet x’nitgħallmu biex forsi nibdlu l-imġieba tagħna u l-istil ta’ ħajjitna. Meta l-impatti tat-tibdil il-klima jiżdiedu u jilħqu l-milja tagħhom, dak li għaddej bħalissa riżultat tal-coronavirus inqiesuh bħala insinifikanti. Hemm bżonn niftħu ftit widnejna u nagħtu każ dak li qed tgħidilna n-natura.

Ippubblikat fuq Illum : Il-Ħadd 29 ta’ Marzu 2020

 

Nature calls the shots

COVID-19 has brought the country to a standstill. We are not isolated from nature and its forces at work around us. We are not immune, not just from viruses, but from the forces of nature.

Today it’s the pandemic COVID-19 that’s ploughing through. Tomorrow it will be climate change.

Nature acts in a non-discriminatory manner.

The coronavirus pandemic is thought to have had its origins at the Wuhan wild animal market in China through the sale of meat derived from various wild animals, primarily bats.

This is not the first time for such an occurrence. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), is another respiratory disease which was detected some 20 years ago, when it had a limited spread. It was traced to a virus belonging to the same family of viruses as the Coronavirus, also traced to viruses originating in wild animals. Incidentally, bats seem to be the point of origin in both cases.

At other times HIV (Human immune-deficiency Virus) which destroys the human immune defences, was traced to the eating of meat of infected chimpanzees. Likewise, the Ebola virus, causing outbreaks of fatal infections, is transmitted from infected animals such as fruit bats, chimpanzees, and monkeys, to humans, generally through the consumption of infected meat.

Nature has a habit of calling the shots whenever it deems fit. Viruses follow natural paths and until brought in check by proper behaviour on our part, they will reign supreme.

Tinkering with nature and natural processes always backfires. There is then a price to pay and we ignore this at our peril.

None of us, most probably, has consumed infected meat from bats or chimpanzees. However, we tinker with nature in other ways, which, in the longer term are just as lethal as viruses which jump from bats to man.

The quality of our air is poor. The European Environment Agency in fact, at times, describes it as very poor.

Yet after the Coronavirus mitigation measures came into force there was a substantial decrease in air pollution registered at the air-monitoring station in Msida operated by the Environment and Resources Authority. Data available indicates a significant decrease in pollutants associated with a decrease in car use during the past weeks as more work from home and the educational institutions closed their doors. Car use has decreased substantially, as a result leading to an all-round decrease in traffic generated pollutants.

It had to be the Coronavirus to commence seriously “implementing” Malta’s National Transport Master Plan which identified car-dependency as a major issue ignored continuously by our transport planners. A basic statistic which stares at us in the face is that 50 per cent of car trips in Malta have a duration shorter than 15 minutes. It follows that mobility is primarily local and regional in nature and on very short routes. Do we need private cars for this? Are the available alternative means of transport not sufficient for this need in a country where practically everywhere is a stone’s throw away?

The impact of COVID-19 on the generation of traffic and consequently on air quality should be an eye opener indicating that we do not need to waste public funds on unnecessary infrastructural road works. We need to understand that it is possible to substantially reduce our impacts on air quality if we address car-dependency head-on. The traffic impacts of Coronavirus could be of help to transport planners to do their job properly.

The impact of traffic on air quality is a significant contribution from Malta towards climate change.

Climate change is nature’s reaction to man-made pollution of the atmosphere. This is already manifesting itself through changes in temperatures, extended periods of drought and changes to rainfall patterns. The seasons at times seem to be inversed. It could get worse, much worse in fact.

The Coronavirus impact has introduced some much-needed breathing space for nature and natural forces, not only in Malta. There are significant lessons to be learnt in order to adjust our behaviour. When the full force of nature releases additional impacts of climate change, the coronavirus impacts would pale to insignificance. Is it not about time that we start listening to nature and act accordingly?

Published on The Malta Independent on Sunday : 29 March 2020