Il-mina t’Għawdex: ħmar il-lejl

Il-Ministru Ian Borg, iktar kmieni din il-ġimgħa, infurmana li kien qed jaħdem biex iwettaq il-ħolma ta’ diversi Għawdxin billi jmexxi l-quddiem il-proċess tal-mina taħt qiegħ il-baħar bejn Malta u Għawdex. Wara dibattitu li ilu għaddej is-snin hu ċar li iktar milli jwettaq il-ħolm ikun aħjar jekk Ian Borg jipprepara ruħu għal ħmar il-lejl.

Saru studji ġejoloġiċi imma lanqas il-konklużjonijiet ġenerali dwarhom ma nafu. Għadhom mistura qieshom xi sigriet tal-istat. Tliet snin ilu l-ġejoloġista Peter Gatt kien ġibed l-attenzjoni għall-fatt li l-mina tal-Enemalta bejn il-power station tal-Marsa u Delimara kienet swiet id-doppju ta’ dak ippjanat u dan minħabba kollass tal-blat f’diversi punti matul il-mina nnifisha. Dan kien seħħ bħala riżultat tan-nuqqas ta’ informazzjoni ġejoloġika meta ġiet imfassla l-mina. Kieku dan kellu jseħħ waqt li jkun għaddej ix-xogħol fuq il-mina bejn Malta u Għawdex hu inevitabbli li jkollna problemi kbar, inkluż possibilment numru ta’ mwiet.

Hu fatt magħruf li fil-Fliegu hemm diversi kisriet ġejoloġiċi (geological faults). Tajjeb li nirrealizzaw li tnejn mill-proposti għall-mina, li saru minn Mott MacDonald, il-konsulenti ta’ Transport Malta, jgħaddu minn dawn il-kisriet.

Li jkunu eżaminati l-kampjuni tal-blat f’laboratorju, anke jekk għal ftit ġimgħat, bla dubju jżid l-għarfien tal-ġejoloġija taż-żona imma dan mhux biżżejjed biex fuqu jittieħdu deċiżjonijiet dwar id-diżinn tal-proġett. Biżżejjed nifhmu li minkejja l-istudji ġejoloġiċi dettaljati fuq numru kbir ta’ snin, ix-xogħol fuq il-mina bejn l-Ingilterra u Franza, iċ-Channel Tunnel, kellu jieqaf u jkun devjat diversi drabi minħabba li t-tħaffir iltaqa’ ma problemi ġejoloġici li ma kien hemm l-ebda indikazzjoni tagħhom fl-istudji dettaljati!

L-istudji serji jieħdu ż-żmien biex isiru: ma jistgħux ikunu mgħaġġla minħabba data determinata minn agenda politika.

Tliet snin ilu, Transport Malta, flimkien mal-Kamra tal-Kummerċ Għawdxija kkummissjonaw studju ekonomiku, ferm qabel ma biss bdew l-istudji ġejoloġiċi. L-istudju kien intitolat Establishing a Permanent Link between the Island of Gozo and Mainland Malta: An Economic Cost Benefit Analysis of Available Strategic Options, li kien sar minn E-Cubed Consultants. Dan l-istudju kien argumenta li t-traffiku bejn il-gżejjer kien ipproġettat li fuq perjodu ta’ 15il sena jiżdied minn medja ta’ 3000 moviment kuljum għal 9000 moviment kuljum. Argument li jmur kontra l-Pjan Nazzjonali għat-Trasport approvat fl-2015 ukoll.

Il-mina proposta teħtieġ ammont kritiku ta’ movimenti ta’ karozzi li jħallsu biex jgħaddu mill-mina u per konsegwenza minn fuqhom jinġabru l-ispejjes tal-mina kif ukoll il-profitti tal-operaturi. Fi ftit kliem il-mina, biex tirnexxi tiddependi minn moviment kbir ta’ karozzi kuljum. Dan imur kontra l-politika dwar it-trasport tal-lum, li ta’ l-inqas fuq il-karta, timmira għal tnaqqis ta’ karozzi mit-toroq tagħna. Din hi materja li bla dubju għandha tkun eżaminat mill-istudju fuq l-impatti ambjentali (EIA) dwar il-mina proposta. Dan l-istudju għadu fl-istadji inizzjali tiegħu u dan wara li l-Awtorità dwar l-Ambjent u r-Riżorsi ftit ġimgħat ilu approvat dak li għandu jkun indirizzat (terms of reference) minn dan l-istudju. L-EIA hu stadju essenzjali li minnu jeħtieġ li jgħaddi l-proġett.

Għaldaqstant, kien irresponsabbli l-Ministru tat-Trasport, meta, iktar kmieni din il-ġimgħa, ħabbar li fi żmien sitt xhur kienet ħierġa sejħa internazzjonali għall-offerti għall-mina bejn Malta u Għawdex. Dan ifisser li dawn l-istudji huma irrelevanti? Fl-opinjoni tiegħi il-Ministru  qiegħed jagħti  dan il-messaġġ ċar u tond.

Din hi l-agħar forma ta’ governanza ħażina għax jimmina l-isforzi tal-awtoritajiet fil-qadi ta’ dmirijiethom. B’dan il-ħsieb jiena ktibt lill-Ombudsman u tlabtu jinvestiga dan in-nuqqas ta’ governanza tajba. Il-Gvern għandu jkollu l-paċenzja li jistenna sakemm ikunu konklużi l-istudji ambjentali qabel ma jieħu d-deċiżjonijiet.

 

Ippubblikat fuq Illum : Il-Ħadd 16 ta’ Diċembru 2018

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Gozo tunnel nightmares

Minister Ian Borg informed us, earlier this week, that he seeks to turn into reality a Gozitan “long-held dream” by starting the process for a Malta-Gozo tunnel below the seabed. After debating the matter for years, it is clear that rather more than dreams, Ian Borg should prepare himself for a nightmare.

Geological studies have now been carried out and the results therof are being treated as some state secret. Three years ago, geologist Peter Gatt had drawn attention to the fact that the Enemalta tunnel between the Marsa power station and Delimara had a cost overrun of 100 per cent as a result of rock collapse along several points of the tunnel. This had occurred due to inadequate geological information fed into the design process. If the same were to happen during the Malta-Gozo tunnel works, a series of disasters, including possibly loss of life, would be inevitable.

It is a known fact that the Gozo channel is full of geological faults. It is pertinent to note that two of the tunnel options put forward by Transport Malta advisors Mott MacDonald pass through an active fault in the Gozo channel.

Taking borehole samples and examining them in a laboratory over a few weeks certainly increases our knowledge of the geology of the area but it is nowhere near the sufficient knowledge on the basis of which one can conclude the design parameters of the project. Suffice it to point out that notwithstanding the detailed geological studies spanning over many years and underpinning planning for the Channel Tunnel linking Folkestone in Kent and Coquelles near Calais, the drilling of the tunnel had to be deviated at certain points because of unpredicted geological formations.

Serious studies take years to conclude: they cannot be rushed to meet a deadline set by a political agenda.

Feasibility studies have been carried out some time ago, long before the geological studies were even taken in hand. Three years ago, the Gozo Business Chamber in conjunction with Transport Malta commissioned a study entitled Establishing a Permanent Link between the Island of Gozo and Mainland Malta: An Economic Cost Benefit Analysis of Available Strategic Options. In the study, which was carried out by E-Cubed Consultants, it was argued that the average annual daily traffic (AADT) between the islands is projected to increase from 3000 to 9000 vehicle movements over a 15-year period.

This feasibility study makes assumptions which run counter to the National Transport Master Plan objective of reducing cars from our roads.

Basically, the proposed tunnel requires a critical mass of vehicular movements which would be subject to the payment of a toll and hence contribute to the recovery of the capital outlay, maintenance costs and profits. This runs counter to current Maltese Transport policy, which (at least on paper) aims to reduce the use of private cars from our roads.

This is an issue which would undoubtedly be examined by the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) on the proposed Tunnel which study is currently in its initial stages after the Environment and Resources Authority recently approved the terms of reference of such a study. The EIA is an essential stage of the assessment of the project.

It was therefore irresponsible for the Minister of Transport, earlier this week, to announce that within six months an international call for tenders would be issued relative to the Malta-Gozo undersea Tunnel. Does this mean that the government considers the EIA irrelevant? This, in my opinion is the clear message being conveyed.

It is the worst form of bad governance as it undermines the efforts of the established authorities in carrying out their responsibilities. With this in mind, I have written to the Ombudsman and asked him to investigate this breach of good governance. Government should have the patience of awaiting the outcome of the EIA before taking any further decisions.

published in The Malta Independent on Sunday : 16 December 2018

Through the revolving door: politicians for sale at a discount

Barroso.GoldmanSachs

 

US Investment Bank Goldman Sachs announced last week that it had “hired” former EU Commission Chairman Josè Manuel Barroso as an advisor and non-executive Chairman of the Goldman Sachs International arm.

The New York Times quoting co-CEOs of Goldman Sachs International Michael Sherwood and Richard J. Gnoddle explained the relevance of the appointment as being “Josè Manuel’s immense insights and experience including a deep understanding of Europe”. Earlier this week, the EU Observer  further commented that Goldman Sachs hired Barroso “as it struggles with the fallout from Britain’s vote to leave the EU”.

Based in London but offering services across Europe, Goldman Sachs may be faced with limited or no access to the EU’s single market as a result of Brexit. Hence the need to hire Barroso as an advisor and lobbyist as the United Kingdom and the European Union prepare for the negotiations leading to the UK’s exit from the European Union which can be triggered any time in the forthcoming weeks through a declaration in terms of article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Barroso’s engagement with Goldman Sachs is one which will be much debated as, like nine other members of the Commission which he led between 2009 and 2014, he has been catapulted into the corporate boardroom through the revolving door. His value to Goldman Sachs is his knowledge of the privileged information to which he had access during his 10-year tenure as President of the EU Commission and, the influence which he may still have on a number of key EU officials.  This gives great value to his advisory/lobbying role with Goldman Sachs.

European Union regulations on the possible activities of its former Commission members draw a cut-off line after an 18-month cooling-off period at the end of their tenure when, as stated by an EU Commission spokesperson, “there is a reasonable assumption that the access to privileged information or possible influence are no longer an issue”.   This is contested by the different political groupings in the EU Parliament who maintain that the cooling-off period for EU Commissioners taking up sensitive jobs after ceasing their duties as Commissioners should be extended from 18 months to five years as the present length of time is insufficient to ensure that the EU is really the servant of ordinary people and not of multinational corporations or international financial institutions.

This debate at a European Union level contrasts to the provisions of the Standards in Public Life Bill currently being debated by the Maltese Parliament which Bill, so far, does not make any provision on the regulation of lobbying in Malta in any form or format.

It is not unheard of in Malta for politicians to move through the revolving door from the Cabinet to the private sector boardroom or its anteroom, and back again. Three such cases of former Cabinet Ministers in Malta in the recent past come to mind : John Dalli and his involvement with the Corinthia Group and later the Marsovin Group, Karmenu Vella who similarly was heavily involved first with the Corinthia Group and subsequently with the Orange Travel Group as well as with Betfair and finally Tonio Fenech’s recent involvement in the financial industry.

Being unregulated, lobbying through the revolving door is not illegal but it can still be unethical and unacceptable in a modern democratic society as it can result in undue influence of corporations over the regulatory authorities.

Piloting the debate on the Standards in Public Life Bill on Monday 11 July, Deputy Prime Minister Louis Grech recognised the deficiencies of the Bill and declared that a register of lobbyists in Malta was a necessity. While this is a welcome statement and a significant first step forward, it is certainly not enough, as a proper regulation of lobbying in Malta is long overdue. This involves much more than registration of lobbyists or even the regulation of revolving door recruitment in both the private and the public sector.

If done properly, lobbying is perfectly legitimate. It is perfectly reasonable for any citizen, group of citizens, corporations or even NGOs to seek to influence decision-taking. In fact it is done continuously and involves the communication of views and information to legislators and administrators by those who have an interest in informing them of the impacts of the decisions under consideration. It is perfectly legitimate that individuals, acting on their own behalf or else acting on behalf of third parties, should seek to ensure that decision-takers are well informed before taking the required decisions.

However, for lobbying to be acceptable in a democratic society, it must be done transparently. In particular, through regulation it must be ensured  that lobbying should not be transformed into a  process through which the decision-takers make way for the representatives or advisors of corporations to take their place. Lobbying activities must be properly documented and the resulting documentation must be publicly accessible.

Hopefully, Parliament will take note and act.

 

published in The Malta Independent on Sunday: 17 July 2016

Brexit u l-artiklu 50 tat-trattat ta’ Liżbona

house-of-commons

 

Fil-Qrati Ingliżi infetaħ l-ewwel kaz dwar ir-referendum Ingliż. Il-Guardian illum tirrapporta li saret l-ewwel talba lill-Qrati Ingliżi li issostni illi l-Prim Ministru Ingliż m’għandux id-dritt li jibda l-proċess tal-ħruġ tar-Renju Unit mill-Unjoni Ewropeja mingħajr ma l-ewwel ikollu l-approvazzjoni tal-Parlament.

Uħud qed jinterpretaw dan bħala li l-Parlament Ingliż jista’ jkollu l-poter li jmur kontra x-xewqat ta-elettorat kif espress fir-riżultat tar-referendum tat-23 ta’ Ġunju. Ċertament li dan mhux il-każ. Għax għalkemm fis-sistema legali Ingliża l-Parlament hu suprem din is-supremazija legali mhux ser tintuża kontra r-rieda popolari espressa b’mod daqstant ċar mill-elettorat.

X’ser jiġri issa hu diffiċli biex tgħid. Imma hu possibli li jekk il-Qrati Ingliżi jaċċettaw it-talba li qed issirilhom u jiddeċiedu li qabel ma issir id-dikjarazzjoni skond l-artiklu 50 tat-Trattat ta’ Liżbona jkun hemm il-kunsens tal-Parlament, il-Gvern ewroxekkitiku tar-Renju Unit (immexxi minn Theresa May jew Andrea Leadsom) ikun soġġett għal Parlament li fil-maġġoranza tiegħu hu magħmul minn Membri Parlamentari li m’humiex favur il-ħruġ tar-Renju Unit mill-Unjoni Ewropeja.

Dan jista’ jwassal għal diversi kundizzjonijiet li possibilment ikun jista’ jimponi l-Parlament. Fosthom li kull ftehim dwar il-ħruġ tar-Renju Unit mill-Unjoni Ewropeja jkun soġġett għall-approvazzjoni tal-istess Parlament! Dan bla dubju joħloq problemi kbar għall-applikazzjoni tal-artiklu 50 tat-trattat ta’ Liżbona. Ikun ifisser ukoll li neċessarjament ikun meħtieg perjodu ta’ negozjati qabel ma jkun applikat l-artiklu 50. Għax minkejja li l-Kummissjoni Ewropeja ma tridx tinnegozja dwar dan, it-trattat ta’ Liżbona ma jagħmilx limitazzjoni ta’ din ix-xorta.

Imma bla dubju jekk dan iseħħ ikun qed jagħti l-poter kompletament f’idejn il-Parlament u jassoġġetta lill-Gvern tal-ġurnata għall-iskrutinju strett tal-istess Parlament. Użat b’mod responsabbli, dan il-poter bla dubju jista’ jwassal għal żviluppi interessanti.

Brexit : issa nistennew is-siegħa tal-prova

Brexit 2

Huwa tajjeb li l-bieraħ il-Gvern Malti u l-Opposizzjoni fil-Parlament qablu illi fil-każ Brexit Malta għandha tfittex dak li hu fl-interess nazzjonali.

Ħadd ma għandu interess li jfittex l-interess nazzjonali Malti ħlief il-politiċi Maltin. La r-Renju Unit, la l-Ġermanja, la Franza u l-anqas l-Italja u insomma ħadd iktar ħliefna.

Diġa rajna tul is-snin kif il-parti l–kbira tal-pajjiżi l-oħra fl-Unjoni Ewropeja bdew jagħtu ftit każ ta’ Malta meta bdew ġejjin f’sitwazzjoni simili, bħal per eżempju fil-każ tal-immigranti Sirjani. Konna ilna s-snin nitkellmu dwar il-ħtieġa li kulħadd jerfa’ sehmu. Imma anke issa li intlaqtu pajjiżi oħra ukoll għadhom mexjin bil-mod wisq.

Wara l-paroli vojt fil-prietki ta’ tmiem il-ġimgħa fil-każini politiċi, l-bieraħ kien mument ta’ ħafna kliem sabiħ. Naraw kif jiżviluppaw l-affarijiet fil-ġimgħat li ġejjin, fis-siegħa tal-prova!

Brexit : issa x’imiss?

downing-street

L-istennija dwar dak li ser jiġri fir-Renju Unit wara r-riżultat tar-referendum qed tikber.

Bla dubju jista’ jkun hemm impatt ekonomiku qawwi, inkluż telf ta’ impiegi. Fil-qasam finanzjarju b’mod partikolari hu stmat li jistgħu jintilfu sa’ 70,000 impieg  matul it-tnax-il xahar li gejjin, unikament minħabba r-riżultat tar-referendum.

X’ser jiġri ser ikun jiddependi ħafna minn min jirbaħ l-elezzjoni għat-tmexxija tal-Partit Konservattiv Ingliż. Michael Gove u Theresa May diġa iddikjaraw illi jekk jirbħu huma għandhom ta’ l-inqas sal-aħħar tas-sena biex jibdew il-process tat-tluq mill-Unjoni Ewropeja. Dan ifisser li kemm Gove kif ukoll May iridu jimxu b’mod kawt. Min-naħa l-oħra, kandidata oħra għat-tmexxija konservattiva, Andrea Leadsom iddikjarat illi jekk eletta hi tattiva mill-ewwel il-proċeduri stabiliti fl-artiklu 50 tat-Trattat ta’ Liżbona.

Dewmien ma jfissirx biss effetti negattivi. Imma jfisser ukoll il-possibilità li dawk li qed jirreżistu li jkun hemm negozjati qabel mar-Renju Unit idabbar rasu jerġgħu jaħsbuha. In-negozjati mmedjati jistgħu jkunu kruċjali. Għax kif ġustament ikkummenta l-ex-Prim Ministru Laburista Ingliz Tony  Blair il-bieraħ, hu possibli li l-opinjoni pubblika terġa’ taħsibha hekk kif ikunu magħrufa l-kundizzjonijiet tat-tluq.

Hi posizzjoni fluwida ħafna, li, sakemm ma jiġrix xi ħaġa straordinarja, ser tibqa’ hekk sakemm jinħatar Prim Ministru ġdid tar-Renju Unit.

Awaiting Brexit?

EU-UK

Will the United Kingdom exit the European Union? There is the distinct possibility that the answer to that question will depend on how long it takes for a decision to be taken.

The main political parties in the United Kingdom are currently dealing with the fallout of the Brexit referendum. The Conservatives are in the process of electing a new leader to replace David Cameron, who has resigned, and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is licking the wounds inflicted by the Vote of No Confidence passed by Labour’s Parliamentary Group.

In the meantime, the EU is awaiting the triggering of the exit procedures as established by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. David Cameron has conveniently passed on the baton to his successor, so far undetermined. Two of the contenders for this position, Theresa May and Michael Gove, on the other hand, have said that if elected, Article 50 will definitely not be triggered before the end of the year.

Given that applying Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty signifies the potential cancellation of a large part of EU legislation currently applicable in the UK, it stands to reason that it is only through an Act of the United Kingdom Parliament that the authority to trigger the application of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty can be attained.

A basic bone of contention is whether the UK will trigger the provisions of Article 50 before or after it enters discussions with the EU. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is adamant that no discussions should take place before the UK triggers Article 50. Yet this does not make sense for the UK, because once Article 50 has been triggered, there is no going back. It makes much more sense, and is also in line with the provisions of the Lisbon Treaty, for the EU and the UK to discuss the terms of an exit in accordance with their respective political priorities.

The issues are clear enough: whether access to the European single market should be tied to the four freedoms, that is freedom of movement of capital, goods, people and services.

Implementing Brexit should mean that the UK’s position is crystal clear: it is against the free movement of people. In fact, this is what the “taking back control” phrase of the ‘leave’ campaign means. Translated into an agreement regulating the UK’s exit from the EU, it should mean that there is no possibility of the EU conceding access to the single market. But will the UK’s political position be that clear and unequivocal? Many in the leave campaign want to have their cake and eat it. They want the benefits of membership (access to the single market) without shouldering the burdens (free movement of people). This is clearly not possible and can be made amply clear in formal or informal discussions prior to triggering Article 50.

The (new) UK government will have some serious homework to do before it sits down at the negotiating table. If it sticks to the Brexit conclusions, the terms of the agreement regulating the UK’s exit from the EU should not take long to identify. It will, however, not be that simple and ultimately it will depend on the composition of the new UK government.

_________

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty

  1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
  2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
  3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

published in The Malta Independent on Sunday : July 3, 2016

Il-libertà tal-moviment tal-persuni fl-Unjoni Ewropeja u r-Renju Unit

freedom of movement of persons

Waħda mill-affarijiet li ħarġet ċara mis-Summit tal-Unjoni Ewropeja tal-bieraħ hi li l-benefiċċju tal-aċċess għas-suq wiehed mhuwiex mingħajr responsabbiltajiet. Ilha ċara imma hemm għamel ta’ bir-ruħu mod ieħor.

L-aċċess għas-suq wieħed Ewropew iġib miegħu numru ta’ responsabbiltajiet bażiċi. Waħda minn dawn hi l-aċċettazzjoni ta’ dawk li nirreferu għalihom bħala l-erba’ libertaijiet  [the four freedoms] : il-libertà tal-moviment liberu tal-merkanzija, tal-kapital, tas-servizzi u tan-nies.

Ir-Renju Unit irid jillimita l-libertà tal-moviment liberu tan-nies.

Għadhom ma fehmux li r-regoli mhumiex a la carte. Għax dawn huma prinċipji fundamentali li fuqhom hi mibnija l-Unjoni Ewropeja.

Stimi jindikaw li fir-Renju Unit hemm 3.3 miljun ċittadin mis-27 pajjiżi l-oħra membri tal-Unjoni Ewropeja li minnhom 2.1 miljun qed jaħdmu.

Min-naħa l-oħra hemm 1.2 miljun ċittadin mir-Renju Unit li qed jgħixu fis-27 pajjiż membri tal-Unjoni Ewropeja. L-ikbar komunitajiet qegħdin fi Spanja ( 309,000), l-Irlanda ( 255,000), Franza (185,000) u l-Ġermanja ( 103,000). 800,000 huma ħaddiema u d-dipendenti tagħhom fil-waqt li 400,000 huma pensjonanti.

Skond iċ-ċensiment tal-2011 kien hawn 6,652 ċittadin tar-Renju Unit jgħixu f’Malta. Nafu ukoll li madwar 28,000 Malti kellhom dritt tal-vot fir-referendum tar-Renju Unit.

 

 

Wara r-Referendum fir-Renju Unit

Johnson Boris + Cameron David

 

It-tmexxija tal-Unjoni Ewropeja ddikjarat li wara r-riżultat tar-referendum ikun jaqbel għal kulħadd li r-Renju Unit idabbar rasu malajr kemm jista’ jkun. Għaldaqstant qed issir insistenza biex jibda minnufih il-proċess tat-tluq skond il-proċeduri kif stabilit fl-artiklu 50 tat-trattati tal-Unjoni.

Imma r-Renju Unit m’jidhirx li għandu għaġġla. Anke għax hemm min qed jirrealizza li l-ħsara li ser isseħħ hi kbira wisq u allura qed jerġa’ jibdielu. Ironikament, il-maġġoranza tal-Membri Parlamentari ma jaqblux li r-Renju Unit ma jibqax membru tal-Unjoni Ewropeja!

Meta David Cameron nhar il-Ġimgħa fil-għodu ħabbar ir-riżenja tiegħu minn Prim Ministru tar-Renju Unit, huwa qal li l-proċess tan-negożjati għat-tluq mill-Unjoni Ewropeja ser iħallih għas-suċċessur tiegħu. Dan jista’ jkun Boris Johnson, sa ftit ilu Sindku ta’ Londra, imma jista’ jkun ħaddieħor ukoll bħal Theresa May presentment Segretarju tal-Istat għall-Intern fil-Kabinett immexxi minn David Cameron. Dan ifissser li tal-inqas baqa’ tlett xhur, imma ma hemm l-ebda garanzija li f’għeluq dawn it-tlett xhur dan il-proċess ser jibda. Dan minħabba li l-politika u l-istrateġija tat-tmexxija l-ġdida għad mhiex magħrufa, dejjem jekk din teżisti.

Fil-fatt, Boris Johnson diġa iddikjara li m’hemmx għaġġla biex ir-Renju Unit jitlaq mill-Unjoni Ewropeja. X’għandu f’moħħu mhux magħruf imma minn dak li ntqal waqt il-kampanja referendarja ma jidhirx li s’issa hemm xi pjan dwar kif jista’ jseħħ it-tluq tar-Renju Unit mill-Unjoni Ewropeja. Minn dak li nkiteb fil-gazzetti Ingliżi jidher li għandu mnejn issir emfasi fuq negozjati informali u dan biex ikun evitat li jibda jgħodd il-limitu ta’ sentejn li jistabilixxu t-trattati Ewropej, liema limitu jibda jgħodd minn meta tingħata n-notifika skond l-artiklu 50. Imma fl-Unjoni Ewropeja ma hemmx qbil ma dan. Sadanittant hemm petizzjoni għaddejja online li sal-ħin li qiegħed nikteb kisbet l-appoġġ ta’ madwar tlett miljun persuna. Din il-petizzjoni qed titlob li r-referendum isir mill-ġdid. Il-Parlament ser jiddiskuti din il-petizzjoni.

Fl-istess ħin hemm reazzjonijiet qawwija mill-Iskozja, l-Irlanda ta’ Fuq u minn Ġibiltà għar-riżultat referendarju. Fit-tlett każi dawn huma favur il-kontinwazzjoni tas-sħubija. Fil-kaz ta’ Ġibiltà hemm ukoll il-kumplikazzjoni tal-possibilità tal-egħluq tal-fruntiera minn Spanja (kif ġieli ġara fil-passat) liema egħluq teffettwa lil madwar 12,000 resident li kuljum imorru Spanja għax xogħol. Il-possibilità ta’ kontrolli mal-fruntiera bejn l-Irlanda ta’ Fuq u r-Repubblika Irlandiża l-anqas ma hu ta’ awgurju tajjeb.

Id-dewmien biex jibdew it-trattattivi għat-tluq ifisser iktar inċertezza għas-swieq finanzjarji, li minnha jbati kulħadd. Inkluż l-ekonomija globali.

Jekk inħarsu lejn kif żviluppaw ir-relazzjonijiet bejn pajjiżi bħall-Isvizzera u n-Norveġja mal-Unjoni Ewropeja insibu li dawn japplikaw partijiet sostanzjali mill-leġislazzjoni tal-Unjoni Ewropeja, inkluż il-moviment ħieles tal-persuni u r-regoli tas-suq wieħed. Dan apparti kontribuzzjoni finanzjarja sostanzjali lill-Unjoni bħala ħlas għall-aċċess għas-suq Ewropew. Dawn kollha affarijiet li Boris Johnson u l-kampanja favur it-tluq tar-Renju Unit mill-Unjoni tkellmu kontra tagħhom waqt il-kampanja referendarja.

X’ser jagħmlu issa? Kollox hu possibli. Imma jekk il-mudell Svizzeru u Norveġiż ikun skartat huwa diffiċli ħafna biex wieħed jifhem x’ser jiġri. Tajjeb li niftakru li meta riċentement l-Isvizzera approvat referendum kontra l-prinċipju tal-moviment ħieles tal-persuni qamu l-irwiefen kollha. Għax il-prinċipju tal-moviment ħieles tal-persuni huwa bażiku għall-Unjoni.

Jidher ċar li quddiemna għandna ġimgħat ta’ spekulazzjoni li ma huma ser jagħmlu ġid lil ħadd. La lir-Renju Unit u l-anqas lill-Unjoni Ewropeja. L-anqas m’hu ser tagħmel ġid il-gwerra ċivili fil-partiti ewlenin Ingliżi. Il-battalja għat-tmexxija tal-Partit Konservattiv ser tkun qalila. Imma issa reġgħet tfaċċat il-gwerra ċivili fil-Partit Laburista Ingliż ukoll bir-riżenji mix-Shadow Cabinet u mozzjoni ta’ sfiduċja fit-tmexxija.

Ser ikunu ġimgħat ta’ tibdil kbir.

Brexit ……diżappunt

Brexit

Ir-riżultat tar-referendum fir-Renju Unit dwar is-sħubija fl-Unjoni Ewropeja huwa ta’ diżappunt. Hi deċiżjoni Demokratika u għal dan il-fatt jixirqilha kull rispett. Imma xorta tibqa’ ta’ diżappunt.

L-istatistika li qed tiġi ippubblikata turi li ż-żgħażagħ ivvutaw bi ħġarhom favur filwaqt li dawk ta’ eta’ l-fuq minn 60 sena, fil-maġġoranza tagħhom ivvutaw kontra.

Imma meta nħarsu lura nirrejalizzaw illi r-Renju Unit għalkemm kien membru tal-Unjoni Ewropeja kellu sieq waħda ġewwa u oħra barra. Baqa’ barra mill-ewro, baqa’ barra miż-żona ta’ ivvjaġġar ħieles magħrufa bħala ż-żona Schengen, kull meta seta’ irreżista drittijiet soċjali fuq livell Ewropew, baqa’ lura milli jimplimenta miżuri komuni fil-qasam tal-ġustizzja u l-intern ………….

Issa li l-Prim Ministru Ingliż ħabbar ir-riżenja tiegħu jidher li n-negozjati bejn ir-Renju Unit u l-Unjoni Ewropeja jibdew wara Ottubru li ġej. Imma sadanittant beda l-ewwel inkwiet. L-Iskozja u l-Irlanda ta’ Fuq, li huma tnejn mir-reġjuni li ivvutaw favur s-sħubija fl-Unjoni Ewropeja, iridu jibqgħu membri.

L-iskozja ġja bdiet it-triq għat-tieni referendum dwar l-Indipendenza filwaqt li fl-Irlanda ta’ Fuq beda diskors favur Irlanda magħquda.

Matul il-ġimgħat li ġejjin bla dubju nisimgħu ħafna iżjed.